2024 Big 12 Football Bowl Projections Following Week 5

SALT LAKE CITY – Conference play can provide some interesting results within the Big 12. It is almost as if one can just roll a 16-sided die to pick a team to win and just see what happens.

Colorado was a two-touchdown underdog on the road at UCF, but it was the Buffaloes who won by double-digits, 48-21. Utah was another big home favorite against Arizona. However, the Utes managed just three points in the first half despite being at the 10-yard line or closer three times in the first half, and ultimately lost, 23-10.

Those two results did not exclude or include any new team in the postseason, but they are shaking up the pecking order. With the Utes loss, they fall out of the spot reserved for the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff.

Another wild weekend of #Big12FB in the books. pic.twitter.com/LC7uNeqtDT

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 29, 2024

The Kansas Jayhawks are by far the biggest disappointment in the Big 12 this year. The Jayhawks were projected to finish fourth in the Big 12 according to the media, and earned five votes to win the conference. They are now 1-4 on the year after losing 38-27 to TCU and are on the outside of our Big 12 bowl projections.

Colorado Moves Up Pecking Order In Big 12 Bowl Projections

There will be the same 11 teams that are in the postseason this week compared to last. However, there is some movement up and down with a few of the results that happened during Week 5. Movement this week comes with BYU and Colorado moving up while Utah and UCF fall down after this week.

When looking at ESPN’s Football Power Index, there are 12 teams projected to get to six wins for the year. The one team that is above that threshold and left out this week is the Cincinnati Bearcats. They are given a 60.9% chance to get to six wins but their projected win total is just barely below six at 5.9 wins.

Teams that are in must-win mode over the next two weeks to stay in bowl contention are West Virginia, Baylor, and Cincinnati, then with a slither of hope due to talent is Kansas.

Big 12 Bowl Projections: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup:  Rutgers vs. Colorado

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Projection

Friday, December 27
Time TBA, ESPN
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Matchup: Army vs. Arizona State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Kentucky vs. Arizona

Pop-Tarts Bowl 

Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

Valero Alamo Bowl

Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: Washington State vs. Utah

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Oregon State vs. UCF

TaxAct Texas Bowl 

Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: LSU vs. Kansas State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Projection

Friday, January 3
4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Gerald R Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Matchup: Navy  vs. Texas Tech

College Football Playoff Projections

There are some big changes in the latest College Football Playoff projections. Eight of the 12 seeds are different this week and there are two new teams to make the field of 12.

There are two big moves this week and the first has Alabama shooting up from the No. 8 spot to take over the No. 1 overall spot after an epic 41-34 home win over the Georgia Bulldogs. The big move is due to this victory for the Crimson Tide earning the best win of the college football season.

The other seismic move has BYU going from not being considered at all this year and taking over the No. 4 seed as the projected Big 12 champion. The Cougars were flat-out dominant — similar to Alabama against Georgia — with a 21-0 and then a 28-7 lead against Baylor before holding onto win 34-28.

The Big 12 is going to be one of the more exciting races this year and the Cougars are undefeated at 5-0. Their 18-15 road win over SMU in Week 3 is looking to be one of the best wins of the year from Big 12 teams. The Mustangs have gone on to score 108 points in wins over TCU and Florida State.

This Big 12 spot could be a rotating door as Iowa State is undefeated overall, Arizona’s win over Utah puts them in position, Kansas State rebounded after losing to BYU to take care of business over Oklahoma State, and the Utes are not out of it as they still get to play BYU and Iowa State.

The fight for the Group of Five position looks like it is a Mountain West team to lose. UNLV had questions after quarterback Matthew Sluka left over an NIL dispute. That did not matter as Cambpell transfer quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams stepped in and helped the Rebels destroy a quality Fresno State team, 59-14.

Boise State is the other G5 team that looks to be nearly as dominant as the Rebels. Heisman contender Ashton Jeanty led the Broncos with 259 rushing yards, four touchdowns, and averaged 10 yards a carry in a 45-24 win over previously undefeated Washington State.

The Broncos and Rebels will face each other on Oct. 25 in Las Vegas in what will definitely shape the race for the Mountain West title and a College Football Playoff spot.

Quarterfinal Games

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 8/9 Winner

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7/10 Winner

No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6/11 Winner

No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5/12 Winner

Opening Round Games at campus sites

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Texas 

No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Georgia

No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Oregon

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Tennessee

First Four out: Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Michigan

Next Group of Five: Boise State, James Madison, Navy, Memphis

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