Jazz Mailbag: Will All Three Rookies Play Next Season?

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Mailbag: Will The Jazz Rookies Play Next Season?

How many minutes do you anticipate each of the rookies to average this season

— Calvy J (@CJRealHoops1) July 23, 2024

Question: How many minutes do you anticipate each of the rookies to average this season?

Answer: This is an excellent question and one that might dictate how many games the Jazz win next season due to the fact that rookies, regardless of who they are, usually hurt more than they help.

Before we address this issue, let’s look at a list of who played last year, how often they played,  who remains on the roster, and how many minutes that would leave for the rookies on the team.

Still With Team + MPG Last Season + Total Minutes

Lauri Markkanen: 33 MPG – 1,820
Jordan Clarkson: 31 MPG – 1,682
John Collins: 28 MPG – 1,901
Keyonte George: 27 MPG – 2,023
Collin Sexton: 27 MPG – 2,075
Walker Kessler: 23 MPG – 1,493
Taylor Hendricks: 21 MPG – 856
Brice Sensabaugh: 18 MPG – 584

Not With Team + MPG Last Season + Total Minutes

Simone Fontecchio: 23 MPG – 1,160
Kelly Olynyk: 20 MPG – 1,019
Talen Horton-Tucker: 20 MPG – 1,009
Ochai Agbaji: 20 MPG – 1,003
Kris Dunn: 20 MPG – 1,249
Omer Yurtseven: 11 MPG – 545
Luka Samanic: 9 MPG – 404

Above are 15 players that truly made up the Jazz rotation last season, with Brice Sensabaugh’s 32 appearances being the fewest games, while Luka Samanic’s 404 total minutes were the fewest among rotation regulars.

I think it’s valuable to look at minute totals because, despite Taylor Hendricks’s 21-minute-per-game average, he played 300 fewer minutes than Simone Fontecchio who wasn’t on the roster over the final two months of the season.

So, let’s break it down this way.

There are 19,680 minutes available to each team during the regular season. Based on last year’s roster, the Jazz would have roughly 12,430 minutes returning to the team, and would have roughly 7,250 to fill due to departures.

step 👆
knock 👇#TakeNote | @tayxhendricks pic.twitter.com/t4H98DCUsm

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) July 17, 2024

However, I think it’s safe to expect Hendricks and Sensabaugh to play more than 72 combined games, so let’s tack on an additional 1,000 minutes split between the two Jazz sophomores next season, upping the returning minutes to 13,430, and dropping the available minutes to 6,250.

The Jazz have done very little in free agency this summer, signing only Drew Eubanks and Johnny Juzang, though I expect both of them to earn rotation-level minutes next season.

Assuming Eubanks plays more than Yurtseven’s 545 minutes last year, and Juzang plays a similar role to Agbaji, let’s pencil them in for 1,800 combined minutes, leaving the Jazz with 4,450 available minutes.

I also believe Darius Bazley is going to make the Jazz’s opening night roster, and will likely fill in as a back-of-the-rotation player, so let’s put him at 850 minutes, or roughly 10 minutes per night.

Now we’re at the point where the rookies have to start factoring in, and the Jazz still have 3,600 minutes to work with.

starting the second half with a 𝓈𝓅𝓁𝒶𝓈𝒽 🌊 pic.twitter.com/ihvXIh6Vse

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) July 19, 2024

I expect Cody Williams and Kyle Filipowski to compete for minutes as soon as opening night, and to see those minutes grow throughout the year. Thus, they should easily exceed the 1,440 total minutes played by Hendricks and Sensabaugh last season.

It may be a bit aggressive, but if Williams and Filipowksi each made 70 appearances, and averaged 18 minutes per game, they’d total 2,500 minutes next season.

That may seem like a lot, but it is still 380 less than George and Hendricks combined for last season on a deeper roster to begin the season.

That would leave Will Hardy and the Jazz’s front office with 1,100 minutes to fill, split between Isaiah Collier, mid-season acquisitions, two-way players, and 10-day contracts.

faked ’em out 🫡#TakeNote pic.twitter.com/uWvzjEZXjW

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) July 16, 2024

To summarize, I don’t expect either Williams or Filipowski to scratch the 2,000 minutes George played last season, which were the second-most on the roster, and the fourth-highest among all rookies.

But I do expect them both to play earlier than Hendricks, which should easily lift them above the 1,000-minute mark.

Collier will likely also get a chance at least to match Sensabaugh’s nearly 600 minutes next season, and if the Jazz move on from either Collin Sexton or Jordon Clarkson, that number could grow considerably.

Would trading Lauri Markkanen for mostly picks be enough to get the Jazz into the top 4 Tankathon teams at the end of the season? Maybe I value our other guys too much, but it feels hard to out-tank Portland, Chicago, Brooklyn, and whoever starts the season poorly.

— Weston (@weston252) July 23, 2024

Question: Would trading Lauri Markkanen for mostly picks be enough to get the Jazz into the top 4 Tankathon teams at the end of the season? Maybe I value our other guys too much, but it feels hard to out-tank Portland, Chicago, Brooklyn, and whoever starts the season poorly.

Answer: Flatly, yes, if the Jazz trade Lauri Markkanen solely for picks they could easily be one of the four worst teams in the NBA.

Now, let’s take a step back.

I think it’s fair to assume that Brooklyn, Washington, and Charlotte should open the year with rosters worse than the Jazz. But I have been surprised at how many people are confident that the Jazz are shoo-ins to win more games than teams like Portland and Detroit.

While simply looking at a roster is one way to project win-totals, I think there is something to be said by what intent teams have shown heading into a season, and factoring that into our expectations.

Deni Avdija slashing pic.twitter.com/eVGKOFCnKv

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) June 29, 2024

For example, the Jazz have done nothing to replace the outgoing veterans on the roster, and should have a rotation littered with first and second-year players.

Portland, on the other hand, made a surprising move on draft night acquiring Deni Avdija who is coming off a strong season in Washington, and added one of the better win-now players in the draft in Donovan Clingan.

Furthermore, it went overlooked how many games the Trail Blazers missed due to injury last season with only Jabari Walker, Toumani Camara, and Duop Reath playing more than 65 games.

Worse yet, none of Jerami Grant, DeAndre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharp, or Robert Williams played more than 55 games.

If the Blazers have any luck with their health, and one of either Clingan or Scoot Henderson can make a positive impact this season, I think they should compete for a similar win total with the Jazz.

Simone Fontecchio with Detroit:

15.4 PTS | 4.4 REB | 48% FG | 43% 3P

Scored a career-high 27 points
4 x 20-point games
Registered 10+ points in 13 of 16 games

$16 million over two years is a bargain.

pic.twitter.com/w0jIz3pk2z

— Jack Kelly (@jack_kelly_313) July 6, 2024

The same can be said for Detroit who made exclusively win-now moves in free agency adding Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Paul Reed, and Tim Hardaway Jr., while resigning Simone Fontecchio.

That’s a team actively trying to improve, and when paired with Cade Cunningham could easily compete for 30 wins this season.

So even if the Jazz don’t trade Markkanen, I’m not sure they aren’t already in the running for one of the five worst records in the NBA next season, and with a little finagling, could be even worse.

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Ben Anderson is the Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops or on Instagram @BensHoops.

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