Breaking Down BYU Football’s Paths To Big 12 Championship Game

PROVO, Utah – How can BYU football reach the Big 12 Championship game for the 2024 season?

There are some simple paths to Arlington as the 9-1, 6-1 in Big 12 play Cougars control their destiny. But then some mind-bending, complicated paths could send BYU to Jerry’s World.

The Big 12 Championship Game will be held on Saturday, December 7, at 10 a.m. (MST) at AT&T Stadium. It will feature the top two teams from the 16-team Big 12.

BYU football paths to the 2024 Big 12 Championship Game

I used Ben Williams’ Big 12 Conference Standings Predictor to bring together these potential paths. Great work by Ben on that app.

Win Out

If BYU wins its final two games of the regular season against Arizona State and Houston, they will play in the Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington. That’s the easiest path forward.

Opportunity to clinch a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game in Week 13

BYU football can clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game if a couple of things happen this week.

The first thing is that BYU has to beat Arizona State.

From the @Big12Conference:

BYU and Colorado are the only Big 12 programs who can clinch a berth in the Big 12 Football Championship in Week 13.

– BYU earns a spot with a win over Arizona State AND an Utah victory over Iowa State.

– Colorado secures a berth with a win over…

— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) November 18, 2024

Secondly, BYU’s rival Utah would need to beat Iowa State.

The Utah-Iowa State game matters because of a potential tiebreaker the Cyclones could have on BYU.

If Iowa State wins its remaining two games (Utah and Kansas State) and BYU splits its final two with a win at ASU but a loss against Houston, the Cyclones would hold a tiebreaker over BYU on record versus common opponents. So, if the Cyclones take a loss paired with a BYU win, the Cougars will clinch their bid to Arlington this weekend.

So, BYU fans should be rooting for the Utes this weekend.

Path to Arlington if BYU finishes 1-1 with a loss to Arizona State

If BYU loses to Arizona State this week but then defeats Houston in the regular season finale, there is still a path for BYU to reach the Big 12 Championship Game with a 7-2 record.

BYU would need Arizona State to lose their regular season finale to Arizona on November 30 in Tucson. Then Iowa State would need to lose either the Utah or Kansas State game to send BYU to AT&T Stadium with a 7-2 record.

Another alternative is Arizona State beats Arizona in the regular season finale, while Colorado and Iowa State both finish 1-1 or worse in their final two games. That would create a BYU vs. Arizona State rematch in Arlington.

BYU’s path if they finish 1-1 with a loss to Houston

If BYU defeats Arizona State in Tempe but loses to Houston in Provo, the Cougars would need Iowa State to lose one of their final two games against Utah or Kansas State to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. That’s in a scenario that assumes Colorado wins its final two games (Kansas and Oklahoma State).

If Iowa State won both games, BYU would need to cheer for Colorado to lose one of their final two games. In that scenario, BYU would face the Cyclones in Arlington.

Path to the Big 12 Championship Game with an 0-2 record

If BYU lost the two remaining games on their schedule, as crazy as it sounds, there could be a path to the Big 12 Championship Game.

Losses to Arizona State and Houston, BYU would then need the following to happen for them to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.

• Arizona State loses to Arizona on November 30
• Colorado loses to Kansas and Oklahoma State
• Iowa State beats Utah and Kansas State
• Kansas State beats Cincinnati and loses to Iowa State
• Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech finish 1-1 or worse in the remainder of their games.

If all those dominoes broke BYU’s way, the Cougars would play Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game.

In this scenario, BYU would be in a three-way tie with Arizona State and Colorado at 6-3.

The tiebreakers would fall under the Big 12’s “Multiple-Team Ties,” which includes three (or more) teams.

It would reach the fourth out of seven possible “Multiple-Team” tiebreakers to ultimately give BYU the nod. That would be the strength of the conference schedule. BYU’s conference opponent’s winning percentage would be 43.2%, Arizona State’s 42%, and Colorado’s 39.5%.

My head hurts thinking of this.

Big 12 Football Championship Game Tiebreakers for the 2024 season

In the event of a two-team tie, here are the Big 12’s tiebreaker rules for the 2024 championship game.

• Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams.
• Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.
• Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the Conference), proceeding through the standings.
• Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e. the strength of conference schedule).
• Total number of wins in a 12-game season.
• Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.
• Coin toss

Tiebreaker for “Multiple-Team Ties”

• The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams:
  • If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process.
  • If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in the tiebreaker.

Other factors for multiple-team ties include:

• Winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all teams in the tie.
• Record of the tied teams against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings.
• Strength of the conference schedule.
• Total number of wins in a 12-game season.
• SportSource Analytics team Rating Score metric.
• Coin toss

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for KSLsports.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.

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