In my most recent podcast with Utah Mammoth radio play-by-play announcer Mike Folta, we speculated on what the Utah Mammoth would do with free agency and the draft.

The 2025 NHL entry draft is one week away. That gives us seven more days of trying to figure out what Bill Armstrong is going to do with the 4th pick.

I’ve conducted a thorough review of mock drafts and every article and interview I could find, including my interviews with Armstrong, to come up with my best, educated guess. But as the saying goes, “The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.”

So, let’s take a look at the picks Armstrong has made over the past 5 seasons, where that pick was ranked, and what players the “experts” predicted he’d take. I’d love for you to play along with us. Please comment on what you think the Mammoth will do in the next few weeks.

Bill Armstrong’s First-Round Draft Picks (2021–2025)

2021 NHL Draft

Team: Arizona Coyotes

Pick: 9th overall (acquired via trade)

Player Selected: Dylan Guenther (Right Wing, Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 4th to 10th across sources.

• NHL Central Scouting: 5th (North American Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 6th
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 8th

Expected Players Before Guenther: Based on consensus rankings, the following players were consistently projected to be selected in the top 8:

• Owen Power (D, Michigan, NCAA) – Consensus #1, went 1st to Buffalo.
• Matty Beniers (C, Michigan, NCAA) – Ranked 2nd–4th, went 2nd to Seattle.
• Mason McTavish (C, Peterborough, OHL) – Ranked 3rd–6th, went 3rd to Anaheim.
• Luke Hughes (D, USNTDP, USHL) – Ranked 4th–7th, went 4th to New Jersey.
• Kent Johnson (C, Michigan, NCAA) – Ranked 5th–8th, went 5th to Columbus.
• Simon Edvinsson (D, Frölunda, SHL) – Ranked 6th–9th, went 6th to Detroit.
• William Eklund (LW, Djurgårdens, SHL) – Ranked 3rd–7th, went 7th to San Jose.
• Brandt Clarke (D, Barrie, OHL) – Ranked 6th–10th, went 8th to Los Angeles.

Notes: Guenther was a high-skill winger with elite shooting, fitting Arizona’s need for offensive talent. The top eight picks aligned closely with consensus rankings, with no major surprises. Guenther was seen as a safe pick at 9th, though some mocks had him as high as 4th.

Dylan Guenther shares his favorite moment of the season (the inaugural game):

“That was probably the loudest rink I’ve ever played in.”

“Maybe when I’m old & this team is still buzzing I can say that I got the first goal.”

Says he has the stick from that first goal. pic.twitter.com/CsCEo56gM0

— Cole Bagley (@BagleyKSLsports) April 8, 2025

2022 NHL Draft

Team: Arizona Coyotes

Picks: 3rd overall, 11th overall

Player Selected (3rd overall): Logan Cooley (Center, USNTDP, USHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 2nd to 4th.

• NHL Central Scouting: 2nd (North American Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 3rd
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 2nd

Expected Players Before Cooley:

• Juraj Slafkovsky (LW, TPS, Liiga) – Ranked 1st–3rd, went 1st to Montreal.
• Shane Wright (C, Kingston, OHL) – Consensus #1–2, went 4th to Seattle (slid unexpectedly).

Notes: Cooley was a dynamic, two-way center, and his selection at 3rd was expected after Montreal’s surprise pick of Slafkovsky. Wright’s slide to 4th was a shock, but Cooley was a consensus top-3 talent, fitting Armstrong’s best-player-available (BPA) philosophy.

Player Selected (11th overall): Conor Geekie (Center, Winnipeg Ice, WHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 8th to 15th.

• NHL Central Scouting: 4th (North American Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 11th
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 12th

Expected Players Before Geekie (beyond those above Cooley):

• Simon Nemec (D, Nitra, Slovakia) – Ranked 3rd–6th, went 2nd to New Jersey.
• David Jiricek (D, Plzen, Czechia) – Ranked 5th–8th, went 6th to Columbus.
• Cutter Gauthier (LW, USNTDP, USHL) – Ranked 6th–10th, went 5th to Philadelphia.
• Kevin Korchinski (D, Seattle, WHL) – Ranked 10th–14th, went 7th to Chicago.
• Marco Kasper (C, Rögle, SHL) – Ranked 8th–12th, went 8th to Detroit.
• Matthew Savoie (C, Winnipeg, WHL) – Ranked 7th–11th, went 9th to Buffalo.
• Denton Mateychuk (D, Moose Jaw, WHL) – Ranked 9th–13th, went 12th to Columbus.

Notes: Geekie, a 6’4″ power center, aligned with Armstrong’s preference for size (all picks since Cooley were 6’0″ or taller). His selection at 11th was in line with rankings, though some expected Gauthier or Savoie to go earlier.

Last night Logan Cooley tallied his 1️⃣0️⃣0️⃣th career @NHL point! pic.twitter.com/OTzbT6YfQv

— Utah Mammoth (@utahmammoth) April 2, 2025

2023 NHL Draft

Team: Arizona Coyotes

Picks: 6th overall, 12th overall

Player Selected (6th overall): Dmitri Simashev (Defenseman, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, KHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 10th to 20th.

• NHL Central Scouting: 6th (International Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 15th
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 18th

Expected Players Before Simashev:

• Connor Bedard (C, Regina, WHL) – Consensus #1, went 1st to Chicago.
• Adam Fantilli (C, Michigan, NCAA) – Consensus #2, went 3rd to Columbus.
• Leo Carlsson (C, Örebro, SHL) – Ranked 3rd–5th, went 2nd to Anaheim.
• Will Smith (C, USNTDP, USHL) – Ranked 4th–6th, went 4th to San Jose.
• David Reinbacher (D, Kloten, NL) – Ranked 8th–15th, went 5th to Montreal.

Notes: Simashev, a 6’4″ (possibly 6’7″) defenseman, was a reach at 6th, as most mocks had him in the 10–20 range. Armstrong prioritized size and defensive upside over forwards like Matvei Michkov (ranked 3rd–7th, selected 7th by Philadelphia) or Zach Benson (ranked 8th–12th, selected 13th by Buffalo). This pick surprised analysts due to Simashev’s lower offensive ceiling. On last week’s podcast, Adrian Denny told us that Simashev and But would have been ranked higher, but due to COVID and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, not many scouts saw them play.

Player Selected (12th overall): Daniil But (Left Wing, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, KHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 15th to 25th.

• NHL Central Scouting: 10th (International Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 20th
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 22nd

Expected Players Before But (beyond those above Simashev):

• Matvei Michkov (RW, SKA St. Petersburg, KHL) – Ranked 3rd–7th, went 7th to Philadelphia.
• Ryan Leonard (RW, USNTDP, USHL) – Ranked 6th–10th, went 8th to Washington.
• Gabe Perreault (RW, USNTDP, USHL) – Ranked 9th–14th, went 23rd to NY Rangers.
• Zach Benson (LW, Winnipeg, WHL) – Ranked 8th–12th, went 13th to Buffalo.
• Axel Sandin Pellikka (D, Skellefteå, SHL) – Ranked 10th–15th, went 17th to Detroit.

Notes: But, a 6’5″ (possibly 6’8″) winger was another reach, with most mocks projecting him later in the first round. Armstrong again favored size and long-term potential over immediate impact players like Michkov or Leonard.

A мамонт signing ✍️!

We’ve signed defenseman Dmitri Simashev to a three-year, entry-level contract!

Read More: https://t.co/SRFTxmBheR pic.twitter.com/O6PW1ivbCC

— Utah Mammoth (@utahmammoth) May 28, 2025

2024 NHL Draft

Team: Utah Hockey Club

Picks: 6th overall, 24th overall

Player Selected (6th overall): Tij Iginla (Center/Left Wing, Kelowna, WHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 8th to 15th.

• NHL Central Scouting: 9th (North American Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 10th
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 12th

Expected Players Before Iginla:

• Macklin Celebrini (C, Boston University, NCAA) – Consensus #1, went 1st to San Jose.
• Artyom Levshunov (D, Michigan State, NCAA) – Ranked 2nd–4th, went 2nd to Chicago.
• Cayden Lindstrom (C, Medicine Hat, WHL) – Ranked 3rd–6th, went 4th to Columbus.
• Ivan Demidov (RW, SKA St. Petersburg, KHL) – Ranked 2nd–5th, went 5th to Montreal.
• Anton Silayev (D, Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod, KHL) – Ranked 4th–8th, went 10th to New Jersey.

Notes: Iginla, son of NHL legend Jarome Iginla, was a slight reach at 6th but fit Armstrong’s focus on competitive, skilled forwards. Some expected Zeev Buium (D, ranked 5th–10th, went 12th to Minnesota) or Berkly Catton (C, ranked 6th–12th, went 8th to Seattle) to go earlier. Iginla’s selection was well-received for his two-way game.

Player Selected (24th overall): Cole Beaudoin (Center, Barrie, OHL)

Pre-Draft Ranking: Ranked 25th to 40th.

• NHL Central Scouting: 19th (North American Skaters)
• TSN (Bob McKenzie): 30th
• The Athletic (Corey Pronman): 35th

Expected Players Before Beaudoin (beyond those above Iginla):

• Zeev Buium (D, Denver, NCAA) – Ranked 5th–10th, went 12th to Minnesota.
• Berkly Catton (C, Spokane, WHL) – Ranked 6th–12th, went 8th to Seattle.
• Sam Dickinson (D, London, OHL) – Ranked 7th–12th, went 11th to San Jose.
• Carter Yakemchuk (D, Calgary, WHL) – Ranked 10th–15th, went 7th to Ottawa.
• Jett Luchanko (C, Guelph, OHL) – Ranked 15th–25th, went 13th to Philadelphia.
• Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (RW, Mora, Allsvenskan) – Ranked 12th–20th, went 15th to Detroit.
• Sacha Boisvert (C, Muskegon, USHL) – Ranked 15th–25th, went 18th to Chicago.

Notes: Beaudoin, a 6’2″ two-way center, was a reach at 24th, with most mocks projecting him in the late first or early second round. Armstrong traded up to secure him, emphasizing size and competitiveness. Players like Buium and Catton were higher-ranked but slipped.

SIGNED, SEALED, DELIVERED ✍️@utahhockeyclub‘s first-ever draft pick, Tij Iginla, has signed his entry-level contract! pic.twitter.com/xN13b5o6IY

— NHL (@NHL) July 11, 2024

2025 NHL Draft

Team: Utah Mammoth

Pick: 4th overall

Player Selected: Not yet drafted (Draft scheduled for June 27–28, 2025).

Context: Utah won the draft lottery, moving from 14th to 4th overall. Armstrong has emphasized a BPA approach, with prospects like Matthew Schaefer (D), Michael Misa (C), Porter Martone (RW), James Hagens (C), and Brady Martin (C) linked to the pick. Current consensus rankings:

• Schaefer: 1st–2nd
• Misa: 1st–3rd
• Martone: 3rd–5th
• Hagens: 3rd–7th
• Martin: 7th–11th

Expected Players Before (Projected):

• Matthew Schaefer (D, Erie, OHL) – Likely 1st to NY Islanders.
• Michael Misa (C, Saginaw, OHL) – Likely 2nd to San Jose.
• Porter Martone (RW, Brampton, OHL) – Ranked 3rd–5th, possible 3rd to Chicago.

Notes: Armstrong’s final pick at 4th is speculative as the draft is ongoing. Utah has met with multiple prospects, but Martin is a strong candidate due to his physicality and fit with Armstrong’s size preference. Trading the pick for a young top-six forward (e.g., Kirby Dach, Jason Robertson) is also possible.

My pick is Porter Martone, if they keep the 4^th pick. I could see them trading for a current NHL-rostered player, picking 9-11, and then trying to select Brady Martin.

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