Bracketology: Could Four Utah Teams Make The NCAA Tournament?
Feb 19, 2025, 12:41 PM | Updated: 12:45 pm
Photos courtesy of: Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images, Triston Hartfiel/Utah State, Utah Valley Basketball on X, Scott G Winterton/Deseret News.
SALT LAKE CITY, Utah- There’s a feeling of March Madness in the air as college basketball enters the last week of February and nationwide bracketology gets underway. Now, the excitement is palpable as we are only a few weeks away from conference tournaments and Selection Sunday.
As the regular season starts to wind down, we begin to get a better sense of who has a realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament, and with one last late-season push from a few squads, the possibility of the state of Utah getting four teams into the Big Dance is still on the table.
Only 25 days until Selection Sunday…..#countdown
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) February 19, 2025
The four teams from the Beehive State that are currently in the best position for berths in the NCAA Tournament are BYU, Utah State, Utah Valley, and Utah. The Cougars and Aggies are closer to “lock” status than the others, but the Utes and Wolverines have both built unexpected resumes up until this point in the season that gives them a realistic shot at hearing their names on Selection Sunday. Let’s break down each team’s road to a bracket berth.
BYU Cougars
It was a rocky road for the Cougars to kick off Big 12 Conference play, starting 2-4. After high expectations at the beginning of the year, it seemed that Kevin Young’s Cougs were going through some growing pains. But, it’s not about how you start. Since January 21, BYU has been 7-2 with their only losses falling in Quadrant 1 to Arizona and Cincinnati. Additionally, all of BYU’s Quadrant 1 wins have come during this stretch with victories over Baylor, UCF, West Virginia, and Kansas.
About two weeks ago, BYU entered the bubble as one of the first four teams out, according to most bracketologists, but have since played their way comfortably into the tournament. This was in part thanks to their latest dominant win over preseason No. 1 Kansas. The Cougars’ stomping of the Jayhawks is currently the best win on their resume and certainly caught the nation’s attention. None of the bracketology projections have been updated since Tuesday night’s win, so it will be interesting to see if BYU moves up in the experts’ eyes.
While their current March projections are worlds better than they were a month ago, the Cougars have the chance to move even higher up the seed line with three of their final five games coming against Q1 opponents, all of them on the road. BYU visits No. 19 Arizona on February, 22, then Arizona State on February, 26, followed by their highest-ranking foe of the year, the No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones on March, 4. Their final two home games both fall in Q2 against West Virginia on March, 1, and then the regular season finale against rival Utah on March, 8.
Any combination of three wins in their final five would be huge for the Cougars come Selection Sunday in hopes of avoiding the First Four in Dayton.
BYU’s Current Bracketology Projections
ESPN: 10-seed, West Region
CBS: 11-seed, First Four
March Madness: 11-seed, East Region
The Field of 68: 10-seed, East Region
Utah State Aggies
Utah State has once again defied the odds as the program is poised to make the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year under a different head coach, this time with Jerrod Calhoun at the helm. The Aggies wasted no time dispelling any doubt with their 16-1 start that included impressive wins in the non-conference portion of the schedule over Iowa, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, and Saint Mary’s. Then when conference play started, Utah State notched two Q1 road wins in their first two games, taking down ranked San Diego State followed by Nevada.
The unprecedented start for Utah State has had them in the tournament field basically since the day that bracket projections started coming out. For the better portion of the first half of the season, the Aggies were also in the driver’s seat to take home the Mountain West regular season title until they were swept in the season series by the New Mexico Lobos who remain USU’s only Quadrant 1 loss of the season. Regardless, the Aggies are still 22-4 overall, owning one of the country’s best winning percentages.
As of right now, Utah State’s resume of 9-4 in Q1/Q2 and no losses in Q3/Q4 has them firmly in the tournament field, but with two more Q1 games to games to go in the regular season, the Aggies could play for better seed and region. Utah State will play three benchmark games right in a row: at home against San Diego State (2/22), and then on the road against Boise State (2/26) and Colorado State (3/1).
Two wins in this stretch would not only do a lot to bolster the at-large resume but also ensure, in all likelihood, the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West Tournament.
Utah State’s Current Bracketology Projections
ESPN: 9-seed, South Region
CBS: 9-seed, South Region
March Madness: 10-seed, South Region
The Field of 68: 9-seed, East Region
Utah Valley Wolverines
The Utah Valley Wolverines have been another surprise story out of the Western Athletic Conference. Despite being picked to finish fifth in the WAC preseason poll, the Wolverines are in sole possession of first place in the league with only five games to go. Now in control of their own destiny, the Wolverines are seeking their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance since joining an automatically-qualifying conference in 2013.
As a member of a low-mid major conference in the WAC, Utah Valley has not played a single Quadrant 1 game this year and has also lost all four of its Quadrant 2 games. This does not bode well for the Wolverines’ at-large hopes, meaning UVU is relying solely on winning the WAC Tournament in Las Vegas to secure the league’s one and only automatic qualifying spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Utah Valley split the season series with preseason favorites Grand Canyon and the Wolverines are currently clinging to a one-game lead in the standings over the Antelopes with an impressive 10-1 record in the conference. All five of the Wolverines’ remaining games will come against teams they have already beaten, but three of them will be on the road. Even still, ESPN Analytics has Utah Valley favored in each of their remaining matchups, meaning projected outcomes in those games would give Utah Valley the No. 1 seed in the WAC tournament.
Utah Valley’s Current Bracketology Projections
ESPN: 14-seed, East Region
CBS: 14-seed, West Region
March Madness: 14-seed, South Region
The Field of 68: 14-seed, South Region
Utah Utes
Of the four teams in the state of Utah that are still in a position to make the NCAA Tournament, the Utah Utes have the most work to do. However, it is wild to think that the Utes are even on bracketology radars at this point in the season, even if it would take a major push to get in.
Utah was picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll, but the Utes currently outdoing those expectations by eight spots in the standings at eighth place and a game over .500 in conference play. Despite some bumps, Utah has also put together some impressive stretches in Big 12 play, including their latest back-to-back wins over a ranked Kansas and a hot Kansas State. The Utes have two Quadrant 1 wins over TCU and Kansas and two Quadrant 2 wins over BYU and Cincinnati.
Even with those victories, Utah’s resume isn’t currently particularly strong, but when you play in a power conference, big games and big opportunities are always on the horizon. Of the Utes’ five remaining games, three are Q1, and two are Q2, and JBR Bracketology sees a path for Utah to snag an at-large bid.
UTAH!!
Back to back wins over Kansas and Kansas State keep the Utes Tournament chances alive! Utah likely needs to go 4-1 to have a shot at an at-large bid. 3-2 might be enough if it includes a win @ Arizona.
For Kansas State, much has been made about the JBR elimination call… pic.twitter.com/csNiskYm8M
— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) February 18, 2025
According to JBR, Utah would have to win at least three of their last five games, if one of them came against Arizona in Tucson, but if Utah lost to the Wildcats, they would have to win their other four games to stay alive.
Utah’s Remaining Schedule
@ UCF, Sunday, February 23 (Q1)
@ No. 19 Arizona, Wednesday, February 26 (Q1)
Vs. Arizona State, Saturday, March 1 (Q2)
Vs. West Virginia, Tuesday, March 4 (Q2)
@ BYU, Saturday, March 8 (Q1)
