2024 Big 12 Football Bowl Projections Following Week 6
Oct 6, 2024, 4:02 PM
MANHATTAN, KS - SEPTEMBER 28: Quarterback Avery Johnson #2 of the Kansas State Wildcats reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second half at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium on September 28, 2024 in Manhattan, Kansas. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
(Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY – After six weeks of play, the Big 12 is shaping up to be what people thought it would which is a deep league full of parity with some surprises. Anyone who thought the three undefeated teams in conference play so far would be BYU, Texas Tech, Colorado, West Virginia, and Iowa State are lying.
This is what is going to make this league interesting, as October is for the conference race, but also how many teams will go to the postseason.
Quick look back at #Big12FB in week 6⃣ pic.twitter.com/TX2ErqrdUm
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 6, 2024
The results were interesting as Texas Tech upset Arizona to be one of those surprise teams in the Big 12 with a 5-1 record and 3-0 in league play. Other surprising results that will have some impact on bowl eligibility is Kansas dropping to 1-5 on the year after losing to Arizona State and Oklahoma State falling to 0-3 in league play after losing to West Virginia.
Who Gets Replaced This Week In The Big 12 Bowl Projections?
It is finally time to say goodbye to Kansas to make a bowl game. They are the biggest disappointment in the Big 12. The Jayhawks were considered by the media to be one of the upper-crust teams. But, now the Jayhawks need to win five of their final six to get to bowl eligibility.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Kansas just a 9.2% chance to get to six wins.
Oklahoma State has lost three in a row, and the prior two have been double-digit defeats. Despite being 3-3, the Cowboys are in decent shape for a bowl game but dropping four in a row very well could change that.
With the schedule that Oklahoma State has left including BYU, Texas Tech, and Colorado; the Cowboys are out of the bowl projections this week.
In their place is West Virginia which defeated the Cowboys this past week, and per ESPN’s FPI, the Mountaineers are given the fifth-best percentage to win the conference. In total, there are four teams between 10.9 and 11.9% chance to win the league with Iowa State leading the way at 28.4%.
Big 12 Bowl Projections: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup: Iowa vs. Cincinnati
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: Arkansas vs. Arizona
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Kentucky vs. Colorado
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Notre Dame vs. Utah
Valero Alamo Bowl
Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: USC vs. Kansas State
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Oregon State vs. West Virginia
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Projection
Tuesday, December 31
2:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Projection
Friday, January 3
4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Gerald R Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Matchup: Washington State vs. UCF
College Football Playoff Projections Shaken Up
Don’t let anyone ever say that there is a bad week of college football. That was some people’s narrative for Week 6. However, those quiet weeks usually tend to be big ones. Five of the top 11 in Week 5’s AP poll lost.
- No. 1 Alabama lost at Vanderbilt, 40-35
- No. 4 Tennessee lost at Arkansas,19-14
- No. 9 Missouri lost at No. 25 Texas A&M, 41-10
- No. 10 Michigan lost at Washington, 27-17
- No. 11 USC lost at Minnesota. 24-17
The best thing top-ranked teams could have done this week was be on a bye this past week to avoid a loss like so many top teams did.
This will shake up the playoff race overall with these types of defeats. The SEC schools have room for error, especially, Alabama, and the Roll Tide bump they likely will get, as that is their first conference loss as is the same for Tennessee and Missouri.
Some pondered the SEC to take in most of the oxygen with at-large playoff bids but now it seems more likely we were all foolish as the league that is arguably the best might cannibalize itself and could have teams in the conference title game with multiple losses.
Those ranked teams that lost are not eliminated by any stretch, but getting to a pair of conference losses will make getting an at-large berth tough.
In the race for the Group of Five, that spot was given to an undefeated UNLV team but their 44-41 overtime loss to Syracuse will drop them in the back of the line behind Boise State and a pair of undefeated in Army and Navy. The Rebels do play Boise State in the Mountain West which will be a quality game to boost UNLV’s resume.
Quarterfinal Games
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 8/9 Winner
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7/10 Winner
No. 3 Clemson vs. No. 6/11 Winner
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5/12 Winner
Opening Round Games at campus sites
No. 12 Iowa State at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Boise State at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Alabama
First Four out: Tennessee, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Indiana
Next Group of Five: Navy, Army, UNLV, North Texas
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